Tuesday, May 19th, 2015View Older Reports
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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
June E-mini S&Ps (ESM15 +0.24%) this morning are up +5.50 points (+0.26%) on carry-over optimism from European stocks. The Euro Stoxx 50 index this morning is sharply higher by +1.7% after an ECB official said that the ECB will increase its QE buying in May and June ahead of lower liquidity during the summer. Asian stocks today closed mostly higher with a sharp +3.13% increase in China's Shanghai Composite: Japan +0.68%, Hong Kong +0.37%, Taiwan +1.15%, Australia -0.77%, Singapore -0.16%, South Korea +0.36%, India -0.15%.The dollar index (DXY00 +0.81%) is up +0.67% as EUR/USD (^EURUSD) tumbled by -0.0106 (-0.94%) on the ECB's announcement that it will temporarily boost the size of QE during May and June. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is slightly higher by +0.07 points (+0.06%). GBP/USD is down -0.87% this morning on the decline in the UK CPI rate to -0.1% y/y, which will keep BOE policy easy. June 10-year T-notes (ZNM15 +0.20%) are up +6.5 ticks on support from higher June bund prices, which are up +0.67 points.
Commodity prices are down -0.64% this morning on the rally in the dollar index. June WTI crude oil (CLN15 -0.81%) is down -0.51 (-0.85%), June Brent crude oil is down -0.63 (-0.95%), and May gasoline (RBN15 -0.50%) is down -0.0172 (-0.85%). May natural gas (NGN15 +1.80%) is up +0.036 (+1.18%).
Precious metals prices are trading lower this morning on the rally in the dollar index with Jun gold (GCM15 -0.64%) down -7.4 (-0.60%) and July silver (SIN15 -1.65%) down -0.317 (-1.79%). July copper (HGN15 -1.51%) is down -0.052 (-1.79%). Grain prices are trading lower while softs are mixed.
The ECB will increase its QE buying in May and June ahead of lower liquidity during the summer months, according to comments in a speech today by ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure. He said that "the slightly higher purchase volume that market analysts may observe in coming weeks is therefore unrelated to the recent episode of market volatility." The QE program involves the purchase of about 60 billion euros per month of securities and is due to last until Sep 2016 and total 1.1 trillion euros. Although Mr. Coeure said that the purchase adjustment is related to liquidity concerns, the outcome is having the ECB's desired effect today of pushing the euro lower and providing support for Eurozone bond prices.
Germany's May ZEW investor confidence index fell sharply by -11.4 points to 41.9 from 53.3 in April, which was substantially weaker than market expectations for a decline to 49. The decline in German investor confidence was driven by the weaker-than-expected German Q1 GDP report of +0.3% q/q, the recent jump in German bond yields, and worries about Greece.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. reports today include: (1) April housing starts (expected +9.9% to 1.018 million after March's +2.0% m/m to 926,000).There are 6 of the S&P 500 companies report earnings today: Wal-Mart (consensus $1.05), Home Depot (1.15), TJX Cos (0.67), Computer Sciences (1.20), Analog Devices (0.72), Autodesk (0.28).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences this week include: JPMorgan Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference on Mon-Wed, UBS Global Health Care Conference on Mon-Wed, Electrical Products Group Spring Conference on Mon-Wed, EPG Conference on Mon-Wed, Asian Investment Summit on Tue, Nomura Gaming, Leisure and Lodging Conference on Tue, JPMorgan Chase Homebuilding and Building Products Conference on Tue, Goldman Sachs Basic Materials Conference on Tue-Wed, Barclays America Select Conference on Tue-Wed, Wolfe Research Global Transportation Conference on Tue-Wed, LME Week Asia 2015 on Wed, BMO Farm to Market Conference on Wed-Thu, Janney Montgomery Scott-Company Marketing: Biotechnology-Southeast on Fri.
June E-mini S&Ps this morning are up +5.50 points (+0.26%) on carry-over optimism from European stocks. Monday's closes: S&P 500 +0.30%, Dow Jones +0.14%, Nasdaq +0.42%. The S&P 500 on Monday climbed to a fresh all-time high and closed higher on continued hopes that the Fed may not ease until early 2016 after Chicago Fed President Evans said that “my current view is that my economic outlook and my assessment of the balance of risks will evolve in such a way that I likely will not feel confident enough to begin to raise rates until early next year.” Stocks also saw support from increased M&A activity after Endo International Plc agreed to buy Par Pharmaceutical Holdings for $8.05 billion and after Ascena Retail Group purchased Ann Inc. for $2.2 billion. Tech stocks received a boost from a rally of more than 1% in Apple after billionaire investor Icahn said Apple's stock price is worth $240 a share, over 86% higher than Friday's close, and that the company should increase its stock buyback program.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
- Wal-Mart (WMT +0.86%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.03, which was 1 cent below the consensus of $1.04. Q1 revenue of $114.83 billion was below the consensus of $116.3 billion. EPS was knocked down by 3 cents by currency effects. Walmart's U.S. same-store sales were up +1.1%.
- Home Depot (HD +0.86%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.21, higher than the consensus of $1.15. Q1 revenue of $20.89 billion was slightly above the consensus of $20.82 billion. Q1 same-store sales rose 6.1%.
- Agilent (A +1.40%) reported Q2 EPS of 38 cents, slightly below the consensus of 39 cents. Q2 revenue of $963 million was below the consensus of $989.3 million.
- Urban Outfitters (URBN +2.85%) reported Q1 EPS of 25 cents, below the consensus of 30 cents. Q1 revenue of $739.01 million was below the consensus of $758.25 million.
MARKET COMMENTS
June 10-year T-notes are up +6.5 ticks on support from higher June bund prices, which are up +0.67 points. Monday's closes: TYM5 -21.00, FVM5 -10.75. Jun T-notes on Monday closed lower on carry-over weakness from a drop in German bund prices and on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in the S&P 500 to a new record high.The dollar index is up +0.67% as EUR/USD tumbled by -0.0106 (-0.94%) on the ECB's announcement that it will temporarily boost the size of QE during May and June. USD/JPY is slightly higher by +0.07 points (+0.06%). GBP/USD is down -0.87% this morning on the decline in the UK CPI rate to -0.1% y/y, which will keep BOE policy easy. Monday's closes: Dollar Index +1.086 (+1.17%), EUR/USD -0.01333 (-1.16%), USD/JPY +0.716 (+0.60%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher on weakness in EUR/USD as market concerns grow about the Greek banking system and the lack of progress in Greek bailout negotiations. USD/JPY received a boost after Japan Mar industrial production was revised lower to -0.8% m/m from -0.3%, which boosted speculation the BOJ may be forced to expand stimulus measures.
June WTI crude oil is down -0.51 (-0.85%), June Brent crude oil is down -0.63 (-0.95%), and May gasoline is down -0.0172 (-0.85%). Monday's closes: CLN5 -0.11 (-0.18%), RBN5 -0.0101 (-0.49%). Jul crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed lower on the stronger dollar and on higher Saudi Arabian oil production. The Joint Organizations Data Imitative (JODI) reported that Saudi March oil output rose to 10.29 million bpd, up +6.7% m/m and the most since at least Jan 2002 when JODI began collecting statistics.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR05/19/2015
| US | 0830 ET | Apr housing starts expected +9.9% to 1.018 million, Mar +2.0% m/m to 926,000. Apr building permits expected +2.2% to 1.065 million, Mar -5.4% to 1.042 million. |
| EUR | 0200 ET | Eurozone Apr new car registrations. |
| 0500 ET | Revised Eurozone Apr CPI, previous -0.1% y/y. Revised Apr core CPI, previous +0.6% y/y. | |
| UK | 0430 ET | UK Apr CPI expected +0.4% m/m and unch y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m and unch y/y. Apr core CPI expected +1.0% y/y, Mar +1.0% y/y. |
| 0430 ET | UK Apr RPI expected +0.4% m/m and +0.9% y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m and +0.9% y/y. Apr RPI ex-mortgage interest payments expected +0.9% y/y, Mar +0.9% y/y. | |
| 0430 ET | UK Apr PPI input prices expected +0.8% m/m and -11.5% y/y, Mar +0.3% m/m and -13.0% y/y. | |
| 0430 ET | UK PPI output prices expected +0.2% m/m and -1.6% y/y, Mar +0.2% m/m ad -1.7 y/y. Apr PPI output core prices expected unch m/m and +0.1% y/y, Mar unch m/m and +0.1% y/y. | |
| 0430 ET | UK Mar ONS house prices, Feb +7.2% y/y. | |
| GER | 0500 ET | German May ZEW survey expectations of economic growth expected -4.3 to 49.0, Apr 53.3. May ZEW survey current situation expected -2.2 to 68.0, Apr 70.2. |
| JPN | 0130 ET | Japan Apr nationwide department store sales, Mar -19.7% y/y. |
| 1950 ET | Japan Q1 GDP expected +1.6% q/q annualized, Q4 +1.5% q/q annualized, Q1 GDP deflator expected +3.6% y/y, Q4 +2.4% y/y. | |
| 1950 ET | Japan Q1 GDP private consumption expected +0.2% q/q, Q4 +0.5% q/q. Q1 GDP business spending expected +0.6% q/q, Q4 -0.1% q/q. |
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR05/19/2015
| Company | Ticker | Time | Event Description | Period | Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Depot Inc/The | HD US | Bef-mkt | Q1 2016 Earnings Release | Q1 2016 | 1.152 |
| Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT US | 7:00 | Q1 2016 Earnings Release | Q1 2016 | 1.047 |
| Wal-Mart Stores Inc | WMT US | 7:00 | Q1 2016 Earnings Call | Q1 2016 | |
| Baxter International Inc | BAX US | 8:00 | Investor Conference - Day 2 | Y 2015 | |
| Home Depot Inc/The | HD US | 9:00 | Q1 2016 Earnings Call | Q1 2016 | |
| TJX Cos Inc/The | TJX US | 9:30 | Q1 2016 Earnings Release | Q1 2016 | 0.665 |
| JPMorgan Chase & Co | JPM US | 10:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| TJX Cos Inc/The | TJX US | 11:00 | Q1 2016 Earnings Call | Q1 2016 | |
| Juniper Networks Inc | JNPR US | 12:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| Gap Inc/The | GPS US | 13:00 | Annual General Meeting | ||
| Essex Property Trust Inc | ESS US | 13:00 | Annual General Meeting | Y 2015 | |
| Computer Sciences Corp | CSC US | 16:15 | Q4 2015 Earnings Release | Q4 2015 | 1.198 |
| Analog Devices Inc | ADI US | 17:00 | Q2 2015 Earnings Call | Q2 2015 | |
| Computer Sciences Corp | CSC US | 17:00 | Q4 2015 Earnings Call | Q4 2015 | |
| Autodesk Inc | ADSK US | 17:00 | Q1 2016 Earnings Call | Q1 2016 | |
| Analog Devices Inc | ADI US | Aft-mkt | Q2 2015 Earnings Release | Q2 2015 | 0.719 |
| Autodesk Inc | ADSK US | Aft-mkt | Q1 2016 Earnings Release | Q1 2016 | 0.282 |
| Equifax Inc | EFX US | Investor Meeting - Amsterdam | Y 2015 | ||
| Southwestern Energy Co | SWN US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Skyworks Solutions Inc | SWKS US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Range Resources Corp | RRC US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Morgan Stanley | MS US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Allstate Corp/The | ALL US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc | DO US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Principal Financial Group Inc | PFG US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| Boston Properties Inc | BXP US | Annual General Meeting | |||
| FirstEnergy Corp | FE US | Annual General Meeting | Y 2015 |
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