Monday, August 31, 2015

Smith & Wesson - Chart of the Day

Smith & Wesson (SWHC) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The handgun manufacturer has a Trend Spotter buy signal. a Weighted Alpha of 78.30+ and gained 63.94% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Smith & Wesson (SWHC).  I found the handgun Manufacturing stock by using Barchart to sort the Russell 3000 Index stocks for the  with the highest Weighted Alpha and then again for the stocks with a Barchart technical buy signal of 80% or better.  Last I used the Flipchart feature to review the charts.  The Trend Spotter signaled another buy on 8/28.

Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation is one of the world's leading producers of quality handguns, law enforcement products and firearm safety and security products. Law enforcement personnel, military personnel, target shooters, hunters, collectors and firearms enthusiasts throughout the world have used the company's products with confidence for 150 years. Smith & Wesson Corp. also manufactures and markets Smith & Wesson branded handcuffs and other products utilizing its metal working expertise and providing products and services to many external customers.



The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below.  Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates.  The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • 78.30+ Weighted Alpha
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 10 new highs and up 12.39% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 67.43%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 16.62
  • Recently traded at 18.08 with a 50 day moving average of 16.50
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $971.98 million
  • P/E 15.30
  • Revenue expected to grow 12.30% this year and another 5.40% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 27.80% this year, an additional 14.80% next year and continue to compound at an annual rate of 14.00% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts released 1 strong buy, 6 buy, 1 hold and 1 under perform recommendation on the stock
The 100 day moving average vs price has been the most reliable technical trading strategy on this stock.

Although this is a stock bucking the current trend, I am still not buying anything in this uncertain market.

The 4 Best Small Caps

Although I'm not buying anything today, I still used Barchart to screen the S&P 600 Small Cap Index stocks to see if any of them met my strict screening criteria.  Today there were only 4: Dycom Industries (DY), Calavo Growers (CVGW), Virtusa Corp (VRTU), and Emergent Biosolutions (EBS).

Dycom Industries (DY)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • 123.46+ Weighted Alpha
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 9 new highs and up 9.24% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 62.24%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 68.92
  • Recently traded at 71.14 with a 50 day moving average of 65.10


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical buy signals
  • 53.65+ Weighted Alpha
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 7 new highs and up 6.87% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 67.26%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 55.99
  • Recently traded at 59.23 with a 50 day moving average of 53.98
Virtusa Corp (VRTU)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart technical buy signals
  • 53.01+ Weighted Alpha
  • Trend Spotter hold signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 2 new highs and up 7.47% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 64.80%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 49.44
  • Recently traded at 52.34 with a 50 day moving average of 49.77


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 88% Barchart technical buy signals
  • 50.55+ Weighted Alpha
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 5 new highs and up 3.10% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 55.92%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 33.73
  • Recently traded at 34.64 with a 50 day moving average of 33.54








BARCHART MORNING CALL 8/31

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.83%) are down -0.82% and European stocks are down -0.52% as Chinese stocks fell on concern China's efforts to prop up its equity market will fail. Another negative for global stock and commodity markets was hawkish comments from Fed and ECB members at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Fed Vice Chair Fischer said there's "good reason" to believe that inflation is poised to move higher and ECB Vice President Constancio said that the link between real activity and inflation in the Eurozone has "strengthened." Losses in European stocks were contained after German Jul retail sales came in stronger than expected. Asian stocks closed mostly lower: Japan -1.28%, Hong Kong +0.27%, China -0.82%, Taiwan +1.94%, Australia -1.08%, Singapore -1.17%, South Korea +0.19%, India -0.41%. China's Shanghai Composite fell even after people familiar with the matter said China's securities regulator asked brokerages to increase stock buybacks and step up their support for stock prices by contributing 100 billion yuan ($15.7 billion) to China's market rescue fund. Japanese stock prices were also pressured after Japan Jul industrial production came in weaker than expected.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.14%) is down -0.13%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.21% after Eurozone Aug CPI rose at a faster pace than expected. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.36%.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 +0.09%) are up +3 ticks.
Comments from Fed Vice Chair Fischer Saturday at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, WY, suggest he favors an interest rate increase sooner rather than later when he said "given the apparent stability of inflation expectations, there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further."
ECB Vice President Constancio said at the Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole, WY, that "the link between inflation and real activity appears to have strengthened in the Eurozone recently."
The Eurozone Aug CPI estimate rose +0.2% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.1% y/y. Aug core CPI rose +1.0% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.9% y/y.
Japan Jul industrial production fell -0.6% m/m and rose +0.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +0.8% y/y.
German Jul retail sales rose +1.4% m/m and +3.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Aug Milwaukee ISM (expected +2.88 to 50.00, Jul +0.57 to 47.12), (2) Aug Chicago PMI (expected -0.02 at 54.5, Jul +4.7 to 54.7), (3) Aug Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (expected +0.8 to -3.8, Jul +2.4 to -4.6).
None of the Russell 1000 companies report earnings today.
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: GC Aesthetics (GCAA), Ardelyx (ARDX), Accelerize (ACLZ), NovaBay Pharmaceuticals (NBY).
Equity conferences this week include: European Society of Cardiology Meeting on Mon-Wed, Longbow Research Industrial Manufacturing & Technology Investor Conference on Tue, Simmons Gleneagles Energy Conference on Tue-Wed, KeyBanc Capital Markets Basic Materials and Packaging Conference on Wed, Global Hunter Securities Industrials Conference on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
United Technologies (UTX -0.03%) was downgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' at Barclays.
Intel (INTC +2.53%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Northland.
Twitter (TWTR +1.40%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at SunTrust.
Morgan Stanley (MS -0.73%) and Goldman Sachs (GS -0.77%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Evercore ISI.
J.C. Penney (JCP +5.55%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank.
CNOOC (CEO -1.67%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill Lynch.
Southern Copper (SCCO +1.56%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' at JPMorgan Chase.
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK -0.23%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Macquarie.
Baidu (BIDU +0.05%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Jefferies.
Freeport McMoRan (FCX +3.04%) , which has fallen over 70% in the past year, looks oversold, according to Barron's.
Barron's said that With its shares down about 50% from all-time highs, Whole Foods Market (WFM -0.88%) looks cheap.
Kopp Investment Advisors reported a 16.1% stake in Superconductor Technologies (SCON unch) .
Apollo Principal Holdings reported a 5.7% stake in RCS Capital (RCAP unch) .
Integrated Core Strategies reported a 4.7% passive stake in Whiting Petroleum (WLL +5.07%) .
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 -0.83%) this morning are down -16.25 points (-0.82%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 +0.063%, Dow Jones -0.07%, Nasdaq +0.10%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed little changed. Stocks were undercut by the +0.3% increase in U.S. Jul personal spending, less than expectations of +0.4%, and by the unexpected -1.0 point decline in U.S. Aug University of Michigan consumer sentiment to 91.0, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 93.0. Stocks found support on Friday's +4.8% rally in China's Shanghai Composite and strength in energy producers after crude oil rallied to a 2-week high.
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 +0.09%) this morning are up +3 ticks. Friday's closes: TYU5 -5.00, FVU5 -7.75. Sep T-notes on Friday closed lower on the stable U.S. stock market and Friday's +4.8% rally in the Chinese Shanghai index. T-notes were also hurt by Cleveland Fed President Mester's comment that the U.S. economy "is solid and could support an increase in interest rates" despite recent market turmoil. T-notes found support on the decline in the U.S. Jul core PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, to a 4-1/3 year low of +1.2% y/y.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.14%) this morning is down -0.128 (0.13%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0024 (+0.21%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.44 (-0.36%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.496 (+0.52%), EUR/USD -0.00698 (-0.62%), USD/JPY +0.668 (+0.55%). The dollar index on Friday climbed to a 1-week high and closed higher on the increases in U.S. Jul personal spending and income that were close to expectations, and weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 1-week low on speculation the ECB may expand stimulus after ECB Executive Board member Praet said that policy makers are ready to act if they perceive a material shift in inflation risks.
Oct crude oil (CLV15 -1.77%) this morning is down -89 cents (-1.97%) and Oct gasoline (RBV15 -2.08%) is down -0.0250 (-2.51%). Friday's closes: CLV5 +2.81 (+6.60%), RBV5 +0.0635 (+5.78%). Oct crude and gasoline prices on Friday closed higher with Oct crude at a 2-week high. Crude oil found support on the sharp +4.8% rally in the Shanghai index on Friday and on the close-to-expected increases in U.S. Jul personal spending and income, which were positive for economic growth and energy demand.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/31/2015
US0900 ETAug Milwaukee ISM expected +2.88 to 50.00, Jul +0.57 to 47.12.
0945 ETAug Chicago PMI expected -0.2 at 54.5, Jul +4.7 to 54.7.
1030 ETAug Dallas Fed manufacturing activity expected +0.8 to -3.8, Jul +2.4 to -4.6.
1100 ETUSDA weekly grain export inspections.
1600 ETUSDA weekly crop progress.
JPN0000 ETJapan Jul vehicle production, Jun -5.3% y/y.
0100 ETJapan Jul housing starts expected +11.0% y/y to 938,000 annualized, Jun +16.3% y/y to 1.033 million annualized.
0100 ETJapan Jul construction orders, Jun +15.4% y/y.
1950 ETJapan Q2 capital spending expected +8.9% y/y, Q1 +7.3% y/y. Q2 capital spending ex-software expected +11.3% y/y, Q1 +8.1% y/y.
2135 ETRevised Japan Aug Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
GER0200 ETGerman Jul retail sales expected +1.3% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Jun -2.3% m/m and +5.1% y/y.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Aug CPI estimate expected +0.1% y/y, Jul +0.2% y/y. Aug core CPI expected +0.9% y/y, Jul +1.0% y/y.
CHI2100 ETChina Aug manufacturing PMI expected -0.3 to 49.7, Jul 50.0. Aug non-manufacturing PMI, Jul 53.9.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/31/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
TCF Financial CorpTCB US8:30Investor Day
Multiple CompaniesNEE US9:00Business Update Call
VMware IncVMW US15:00Analyst Day
Genesee & Wyoming IncGWR USInvestor Meeting

Friday, August 28, 2015

Sarepta Therapeutics - Chart of the Day

Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) is the Barchart Chart of the day.  The pharmaceutical company has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 16.60+ and gained 153.56% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Serepta Therapeutics (SRPT).  I found the stock by using Barchart to sort the Russell 3000 Index stocks first for the highest technical buy signals then for a positive Weighted Alpha.  The Trend Spotter signaled another buy signal just yesterday.

Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. focuses on the discovery and development of RNA-based therapeutics for the treatment of rare and infectious diseases. The Company's diverse pipeline includes its lead program eteplirsen, for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc., formerly known as AVI BioPharma, Inc., is headquartered in Bothell, Washington.


The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below.  Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates.  The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart Technical Indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • 61.60+ Weighted Alpha
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 8 new highs and up 14.55% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 63.22%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 33.22
  • Recently traded at 36.69 with a 50 day moving average of 32.51
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $1.52 billion
  • The Revenue and earnings estimated are not reliable because they are all over the place
  • Wall Street analysts issued 6 strong buy, 2 buy and 6 hold recommendations on the stock
The 100 day moving avnlerages vs price has been a reliable technical trading strategy for this stock

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Heron Therapeutics - Chart of the Day

Heron Therapeutics (HRTX) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The medical drug company has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 191.31+ and gained 276.57% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day is Heron Therapeutics (HRTX).  I found the medical drug stock by using Barchart to sort the Russell 3000 Index stocks first for the Barchart technical buy signals of 80% or better then for a positive Weighted Alpha.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 8/11 the stock gained 16.76%.


Heron Therapeutics Inc. is a specialty pharmaceutical company. The company is developing products using its proprietary Biochronomer (TM) polymer-based drug delivery platform. Its product portfolio includes APF530, is being developed for the prevention of acute chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting. Heron Therapeutics Inc., formerly known as A.P. Pharma, Inc., is based in Redwood City, CA.

The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below.  Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates.  The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:
  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • 191.31+ Weighted Alpha
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 30 and 100 day moving averages
  • 3 new highs and up 9.47% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 61.62%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 32.81
  • Recently traded at 35.36 with a 50 day moving average of 32.14
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $1.22 billion
  • Revenue estimates not given
  • Earnings estimated to increase 1.40% this year, an additional 36.40% next year and continue to compound at an annual rate of 54.00% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 6 strong buy ratings on this stock
The 20-100 Day MACD Oscillator has been a reliable technical trading strategy for this stock.

Under current market condition I am making no buy recommendations.  This post is meant to show you that even in choppy markets like the present Barchart can assist you in finding stocks trading against the tape.


Only 2 Mid Cap Stocks Made the Cut

Normally, I'd be posting the 5 Best Stock of the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index but only 2 met the criteria I require.

Making the cut were Guess (GES) and Acxiom (ACXM).

Guess (GES)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Weighted Alpha 3.60+
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 2 new highs and up 1.18% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 61.63%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 19.67
  • Recently traded at 20.86 with a 50 day moving average of 18.65
Acxiom (ACXM)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 80% Barchart technical buy  signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Weighted Alpha 17.80+
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 12 new highs and up 19.35% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 63.62%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 19.67
  • Recently traded at 20.86 with a 50 day moving average of 18.65







THE NUMBERS DON'T ADD UP

Something I learned long ago was the Economy and the Stock Market are two very separate entities. Normally they correlate and we have an expanding economy and as stocks prices climb an expanding stock market capitalization and everyone is happy

I always try to be on the right side of the market by noticing if both the economy and stock market are expanding at the same time.  When one is expanding and the other is contracting I get worried.  When both are contracting I panic and sit out the next few dances.

On August 20  The Conference Board released their monthly  report on their Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators:  Conference Board LEI Press Release

In that report they said the Leading Economic Indicators DECLINED by 0.2%,

My proxy for the Stock Market is the Value Line Arithmetic Index, an unweighted index of the 1700 stocks followed by the Value Line Investment Survey which in aggregate contains over 95% of the entire US public companies' capitalization.

Look at this chart:


Look at these Barchart Technical indicators:

  • 96% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signals
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • Weighted Alpha Negative 10.07
  • 12.65% off its 52 week high
  • Relative Strength Index 31.41%
  • 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell signal
My interpretation of these numbers is the Economy is contracting and the Capitalization of the Stock Market is contracting.

I don't know about you but I'm comfortable with my cash position and will sit on the sideline till these two indicators reverse.

BARCHART MORNING CALL 8/27

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.99%) are up +1.11% and European stocks are up +3.11% as a rally metals and crude oil buoyed mining and energy stocks. Emerging market stocks and currencies also gained as a rally in Chinese stocks improved overall market sentiment. Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +1.08%, Hong Kong +3.60%, China +5.34%, Taiwan +1.41%, Australia +1.17%, Singapore +2.52%, South Korea +0.54%, India +2.01%. China's Shanghai Composite swung from a loss of -0.7% to close up 5.34% in the final hour of trading and snapped a five-day losing streak after people familiar with the matter said the government intervened to boost stock prices. The Chinese government wants to stabilize equity prices and ensure that nothing detracts from a Sep 3 military parade that celebrates the 70th anniversary of the victory over Japan in WWII, according to people familiar with the matter.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.30%) is up +0.37%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.17%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.21%.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.02%) are little changed, up +0.5 of a tick.
Speaking at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, WY, Kansas City Fed President George said that it's "too soon" to tell whether recent market volatility is going to affect the U.S. economy and "what it means for monetary policy I think is not yet clear." As a result, the Fed will have to see what conditions look like at the time of the Sep FOMC meeting.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -2,000 to 275,000, previous +4,000 to 277,000) and continuing claims (expected -7,000 to 2.247 million, previous -24,000 to 2.254 million), (2) revised Q2 GDP (expected +3.2% vs previous +2.3%), (3) July pending home sales (expected +1.0% m/m and +8.3% y/y, Jun -1.8% m/m and +11.1% y/y), (4) Aug Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (expected +3 to -4, Jul +2 to -7), (5) the Treasury's auction of $29 billion of 7-year T-notes, (6) the annual Kansas City Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, WY.
There are 7 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Tiffany (consensus 0.91), JM Smucker (1.24), Patterson Cos (0.52), Dollar General (0.94), Signet Jewelers (1.15), Autodesk (0.17), Gamestop (0.24).
U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today include: none.
Equity conferences during the remainder of this week include: Pareto Healthcare Conference on Fri.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Dollar General (DG +4.04%) reported Q2 EPS of 95 cents, better than consensus of 94 cents.
JM Smucker (SJM +2.15%) reported Q1 EPS of $1.32, higher than consensus of $1.24.
Tiffany & Co. (TIF +3.96%) reported Q2 EPS of 86 cents, below consensus of 91 cents.
Signet Jewelers Ltd. (SIG +3.17%) reported Q2 EPS of 78 cents, well below consensus of $1.15.
Patterson Cos. (PDCO +3.72%) reported Q1 EPS of 32 cents, weaker than consensus of 52 cents.
BofA/Merrill Lynch added AutoZone (AZO +2.66%) to the U.S. 1 List and maintained its 'Buy' rating and $865 price target on the stock.
Stifel upgraded Kansas City Southern (KSU +3.39%) to 'Hold' from 'Sell.'
The Financial TImes reports that Abbott Labs (ABT +2.52%) is prepping a $25 billion takeover offer for St. Jude Medical (STJ +1.58%) .
Stifel upgraded CSX (CSX +4.19%) to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a price target of $35.
Waters (WAT +5.00%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Cantor with a price target of $163.
Illumina (ILMN +3.20%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Cantor with a price target of $265.
Williams-Sonoma (WSM +2.53%) fell over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 58 cents, right on consensus, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $3.35-$3.45, below consensus $3.48.
Guess (GES +7.30%) dropped over 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 21 cents, above consensus of 15 cents, but then lowered guidance on Q3 EPS to 8 cents-12 cents, below consensus of 18 cents.
Avago (AVGO +7.09%) reported Q3 EPS of $2.24, higher than consensus of $2.14.
PVH Corp. (PVH +2.03%) climbed over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.37, better than consensus of $1.29.
MARKET COMMENTS
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.99%) this morning are up +21.50 points (+1.11%). Wednesday's closes: S&P 500 +3.90%, Dow Jones +3.95%, Nasdaq +5.06%. The S&P 500 on Wednesday closed sharply higher on (1) signs of strength in the U.S. economy after Jul capital spending rose +2.2%, stronger than expectations of +0.3% and the biggest increase in 13 months, (2) increased M&A activity after Schlumberger agreed to buy Cameron for $14.8 billion, and (3) reduced chances of a Fed rate hike next month after New York Fed President Dudley said the recent turmoil in global financial markets makes the case for a Fed interest rate increase next month "less compelling."
Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU15 -0.02%) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick. Wednesday's closes: TYU5 -4.00, FVU5 +1.25. Sep T-notes on Wednesday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand after the sharp rally in stocks and on weak demand for the Treasury's $35 billion auction of 5-year T-notes that had a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.34, the lowest in 6 years. T-notes found support on dovish comments from New York Fed President Dudley who said that recent global turmoil has made the case for a Fed rate hike In Sep "less compelling."
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.30%) this morning is up +0.350 (+0.37%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0019 (-0.17%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.25 (+0.21%). Wednesday's closes: Dollar Index +0.570 (+0.60%), EUR/USD -0.02025 (-1.76%), USD/JPY +1.074 (+0.90%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher on the stronger-than-expected U.S. Jul durable goods orders report, which bolstered the outlook for U.S. economic growth. In addition, there was weakness in EUR/USD on speculation the ECB may expand stimulus measures after ECB Executive Board member Praet said that downside risks to the ECB's inflation goal have increased.
Oct crude oil (CLV15 +3.94%) this morning is up +$1.78 a barrel (+4.81%) and Oct gasoline (RBV15 +5.36%) is up +0.0775 (+6.30%). Wednesday's closes: CLV5 -0.71 (-1.81%), RBV5 -0.0444 (-3.43%). Oct crude and gasoline on Wednesday closed lower with Oct gasoline at a 7-month low. Crude oil prices were hurt by the stronger dollar, an unexpected +1.66 million bbl increase in weekly EIA gasoline inventories (vs expectations of -950,000 bbl), and the +1.44 million build in EIA distillate supplies to a 3-3/4 year high. Crude prices recovered from their worst levels after EIA crude stockpiles unexpectedly fell -5.45 million bbl to a 5-1/2 month low versus expectations for a +2.0 million bbl increase.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR08/27/2015
US0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected -2,000 to 275,000, previous +4,000 to 277,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -7,000 to 2.247 million, previous -24,000 to 2.254 million.
0830 ETRevised Q2 GDP expected +3.2% (q/q annualized), previous +2.3%. Revised Q2 personal consumption expected +3.0%, previous +2.9%. Revised Q2 GDP price index, previous +2.0%. Revised Q2 core PCE deflator, previous +1.8% q/q.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
1000 ETJul pending home sales expected +1.0% m/m and +8.3% y/y, Jun -1.8% m/m and +11.1% y/y.
1100 ETAug Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity expected +3 to -4, Jul +2 to -7.
1300 ETTreasury auctions $29 billion of 7-year T-notes.
n/aAnnual Kansas City Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, WY.
GER0200 ETGerman Jul import price index expected -0.3% m/m and -1.4% y/y, Jun -0.5% m/m and -1.4% y/y.
UK0200 ETUK Aug nationwide house prices expected +0.4% m/m and +3.1% y/y, Jul +0.4% m/m and +3.5% y/y
1905 ETUK Aug GfK consumer confidence expected unch at 4.
EUR0400 ETEurozone Jul M3 money supply expected +4.9% y/y and +5.0% 3-mo avg, Jun +5.0% y/y and +5.1% 3-mo avg.
JPN1930 ETJapan Jul jobless rate expected unch at 3.4%. Jul job-to-applicant ratio expected unch at 1.19.
1930 ETJapan Jul overall household spending expected +0.5% y/y, Jun -2.0% y/y.
1930 ETJapan Jul national CPI expected +0.2% y/y, Jun +0.4% y/y. Jul national CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.2% y/y, Jun +0.1% y/y. Jul national CPI ex food & energy expected +0.6% y/y, Jun +0.6% y/y.
1930 ETJapan Aug Tokyo CPI expected +0.1% y/y, Jul +0.2% y/y. Aug Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food expected -0.2% y/y, Jul -0.1% y/y. Aug Tokyo CPI ex food & energy expected +0.3% y/y, Jul +0.3% y/y.
1950 ETJapan Jul retail sales expected +0.6% m/m and +1.1% y/y, Jun -0.6% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
CHI2130 ETChina Jul industrial profits, Jun -0.3% y/y.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR08/27/2015
CompanyTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
JM Smucker Co/TheSJM USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20161.24
Tiffany & CoTIF USBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.909
Patterson Cos IncPDCO USBef-mktQ1 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20160.522
Dollar General CorpDG USBef-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.941
Signet Jewelers LtdSIG US7:00Q2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20161.15
JM Smucker Co/TheSJM US8:30Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Tiffany & CoTIF US8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Signet Jewelers LtdSIG US8:30Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
PVH CorpPVH US9:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Patterson Cos IncPDCO US10:00Q1 2016 Earnings CallQ1 2016
Dollar General CorpDG US10:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Intel CorpINTC US12:00Investor DayY 2015
Autodesk IncADSK US17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
GameStop CorpGME US17:00Q2 2016 Earnings CallQ2 2016
Autodesk IncADSK USAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.173
GameStop CorpGME USAft-mktQ2 2016 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20160.241
Equifax IncEFX USInvestor Meeting - Los AngelesY 2015
Amgen IncAMGN USPDUFA, evolocumab, dyslipidemia
United Parcel Service IncUPS USRoadshow - TorontoY 2015

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Calavo Growers - Chart of the Day

Calavo Growers (CVGW) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The agricultural services company has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 54.90+, gained 56.03% in the last year and paid a 1.37% dividend.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Calavo Growers (CVGW).  I found the agricultural services stock by using Barchart to sort the Russell 3000 Index stocks first for Barchart technical buy signals of 80% or better, then again for a positive Weighted Alpha.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 7/20 the stock gained 16.42%.

Calavo Growers, Inc. engages in the procurement and marketing of avocados and other perishable foods and the preparation and distribution of processed avocado products. Their expertise in marketing and distributing avocado, processed avocado, and other perishable foods allows them to deliver a wide array of fresh and processed food products to food distributors, produce wholesalers, supermarkets, and restaurants on a worldwide basis.



The status of Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below.  Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates.  The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • 54.90+ Weighted Alpha
  • Trend Spotter buy signal
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 5 new highs and up 12.58% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 72.98%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 53.75
  • Recently traded at 59.62 with a 50 day moving average of 53.75
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $1.03 billion
  • P/E 32.12
  • Dividend yield 1.37%
  • Revenue expected to grow 17.20% this year and another 15.60% next year
  • Earnings estimated to increase 33.80% this year, an additional 14.90% next year and continue to compound at an annual rate of 10.00% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 1 strong buy, 1 buy and 2 hold recommendations on the stock
The price vs.  the 100 day moving averages have been the most successful trading strategy for this stock.

Remember these are not buy rating but are an example of a stock fighting the tape.

No S&P 500 Large Cap Pick Today

Each week I rotate through the S&P 500 Large Cap, S&P 400 Mid Cap, S&P 600 Small Cap, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 3000 stocks to give you the 5 Best Stocks of the Day from those screenings.  NOT TODAY!

I use a very strict technical analysis selection process:

  • Positive Weighted Alpha
  • Barchart technical buy signals of 80% or better based on Barchart's 13 technical indicators
  • Buy signal on 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator
  • Buy signal Trend Spotter
  • 50%+  14 Day Relative Strength Index
  • Positive 1,3 and 6 month price change
  • Not more than 10% off of 52 week high
At the time of my screening process the was not a single S&P 500 Large Cap stock that passed the test.

My advice is to sit it out, keep your powder dry and wait for the market to strengthen.

Maybe tomorrow but I have no crystal ball.


ETFs that mirror those indexes IVV, IJH, IJR, QQQ, UWC