Thursday, October 2, 2014

BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/2

BARCHART MORNING CALL 

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.14%) this morning are down -0.01% and European stocks are down -0.39% ahead of the outcome of today's ECB meeting and the press conference by ECB President Draghi soon after. European stocks may be disappointed if Draghi fails to offer insight into the size and scope of its expected purchases of asset-backed securities (ABS). Greek sovereign debt rallied sharply Wednesday after the Financial Times reported that the ECB will propose that existing requirements on the quality of assets accepted are relaxed to allow purchases of some Greek and Cypriot ABS. Russia's Micex Stock Index tumbled to a 1-1/2 month low after the IMF cut its Russian 2015 GDP forecast in half to +0.5% from +1.0% amid the fallout from the conflict in Ukraine and a weaker ruble. Asian stocks closed lower: Japan -2.61%, Hong Kong, China and India closed for holiday, Taiwan -0.17%, Australia -0.68%, Singapore -1.08%, South Korea -1.09%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index fell sharply to a 3-1/2 week low on carry-over weakness from Wednesday's slide in U.S. stocks along with a decline in Japanese exporters after the yen rose to a 1-week high against the dollar. Commodity prices are mostly lower. Nov crude oil (CLX14 -1.80%) is down -2.22% at a 17-month low after Saudi Arabia reduced the price of its Arab Light crude by $1 a barrel, suggesting that Saudi Arabia does not plan on cutting production and instead wants to protect its share of OPEC output. Nov gasoline (RBX14 -1.87%) is down -2.05% at a 3-3/4 year low. Dec gold (GCZ14 -0.17%) is down -0.10%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -0.71%) is down -0.56%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed with Dec live cattle up +0.45% at a contract high. The dollar index (DXY00 -0.26%) is down -0.27%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.12%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.28% at a 1-week low. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.01%) are up +0.5 of a tick at a 1-month high.
Eurozone Aug PPI fell -0.1% m/m, right on expectations, and on a year-over-year basis fell -1.4% y/y, a larger drop than expectations of -1.2% y/y.
The UK Sep Markit/CIPS construction PMI unexpectedly rose +0.2 to 64.2, better than expectations of -0.5 to 63.5 and the fastest pace of expansion in 8 months.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show a small increase of +4,000 to 297,000, adding to last week’s increase of +12,000 to 293,000. Meanwhile, today’s continuing claims report is expected to show a decline of -14,000 to 2.425 million, more than reversing last week’s rise of +7,000 to 2.439 million. Today’s Aug factory orders report is expected to show a decline of -9.5%, giving back most of the +10.5% increase seen in July. There are three of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: McCormick (consensus $0.81), Global Payments (1.14), Constellation Brands (1.16). Equity conferences today include: Paris Motor Show 2014-Press Days on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
McCormick & Co. (MKC -1.93%) reported Q3 EPS of 95 cents, better than consensus of 81 cents.
Constellation Brands (STZ -2.18%) reported Q2 EPS of $1.11, weaker than consensus of $1.16.
Global Payments (GPN -1.56%) reported Q1 cash EPS of $1.22, higher than consensus of $1.14.
Darden (DRI -0.99%) says it sees Q2 EPS in the upper end of 26 cents-28 cents, better than consensus of 26 cents.
Autodesk (ADSK +1.02%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Sell' at Citigroup.
Citigroup keeps its 'Buy' rating on Apple (AAPL -1.56%) and raised its price target on the stock to $120 from $110 citing higher than expected iPhone 6 pricing.
Intuit (INTU -2.20%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal-Weight' at Evercore.
Barrick Gold (ABX +0.61%) was upgraded to 'Hold' from 'Sell' at Canaccord.
Bank of America (BAC -1.35%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS.
Deutsche Bank reiterated its 'Buy' ratinng on CME Group (CME -0.70%) and raised its price target on the shares to $95 from $85.
Northrop Grumman (NOC -2.84%) has been awarded a $306.13 million government contract for logistics support of the Global Hawk fielded weapon system.
ICS Opportunities reported a 5.2% passive stake in Penn Virginia (PVA -4.64%) .
Marathon Petroleum (MPC -2.63%) was initiated with a 'Top Pick' at RBC Capital with a price target of $115.
Valero (VLO -1.45%) was initiated with an 'Outperform' at RBC Capital with a price target of $66.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.14%) this morning are down -0.25 of a point (-0.01%). The S&P 500 index on Wednesday fell to a 1-1/2 month low and closed sharply lower: S&P 500 -1.32%, Dow Jones -1.40%, Nasdaq -1.60%. Bearish factors included (1) European economic concerns after the German Sep Markit/BME manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 49.9 from 50.3, the first time the index has fallen below 50.0 in 15 months, and (2) the -3.4 point drop in the Sep ISM manufacturing PMI to 56.6, weaker than expectations of -0.5 to 58.5. On the positive side, the Sep ADP employment report increased by +213,000, stronger than expectations of +205,000.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.01%) this morning are up +0.5 of a tick at a 1-month high. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday jumped to a 3-week high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) carry-over support from a rally in German bunds to a 3-week high on concern the European economy is slowing after the Eurozone Sep Markit manufacturing PMI was revised down to a 15 month low, (2) the larger-than-expected decline in the Sep ISM manufacturing PMI, and (3) increased safe-haven demand for Treasuries as stocks stumbled. Closes: TYZ4 +28.00, FVZ4 +15.75.
The dollar index (DXY00 -0.26%) this morning is down -0.234 (-0.27%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0015 (+0.12%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.31 (-0.28%) at a 1-week low. The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) weakness in EUR/USD after the Eurozone Sep Markit manufacturing PMI was revised lower to the slowest pace of expansion in 15 months, and (2) increased safe-haven demand for the dollar after the S&P 500 fell to a 1-1/2 month low. Closes: Dollar index +0.036 (+0.04%), EUR/USD -0.00078 (-0.06%), USD/JPY -0.751 (-0.68%).
Nov WTI crude oil (CLX14 -1.80%) this morning is down sharply by -$2.01 a barrel (-2.22%) at a 17-month low and Nov gasoline (RBX14 -1.87%) is down -0.0503 (-2.05%) at a 3-3/4 year low. Nov crude and Nov gasoline prices on Wednesday settled mixed: CLX4 -0.43 (-0.47%), RBXX4 +0.0124 (+0.51%). Crude prices erased an early rally and closed lower after Saudi Arabia cut its November official selling prices to all areas, suggesting they won’t be cutting back on production. Bullish factors included (1) the unexpected -1.363 million bbl decline in weekly EIA crude inventories to an 8-month low of 356.6 million bbl versus expectations for a +1.5 million bbl build, and (2) the -1.84 million bbl drop in EIA gasoline inventories to a 22-month low of 208.5 million bbl versus expectations for a -600,000 bbl decline.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/02/2014
US0730 ETSep Challenger job cuts, Aug -20.7% y/y.
0830 ETWeekly initial unemployment claims expected +4,000 to 297,000, previous +12,000 to 293,000. Weekly continuing claims -14,000 to 2.425 million, previous +7,000 to 2.439 million.
0830 ETUSDA weekly Export Sales.
0945 ETSep New York ISM, Aug -11.0 to 57.1.
1000 ETAug factory orders expected -9.5%, Jul +10.5%.
1100 ETTreasury announces amounts of 3-year T-notes (previous $27 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $21 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $13 billion) to be auctioned Oct 7-9.
1200 ETNew York Fed President William Dudley speaks at the NYU Stern School of Business.
1300 ETAtlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart delivers opening remarks at the Atlanta Feds Center for Human Capital Studies conference on employment and social insurance.
2000 ETSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks about eh U.S. economy and monetary policy to business and community leaders in Tupelo, Mississippi.
UK0430 ETUK Sep Markit/CIPS construction PMI expected -0.5 to 63.5, Aug 64.0.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Aug PPI expected -0.1% m/m and -1.2% y/y, Jul -0.1% m/m and -1.1% y/y.
0745 ETECB announces interest rate decision.
0830 ETECB President Mario Draghi holds monthly press conference following ECB policy meeting.
CHI2100 ETChina Sep non-manufacturing PMI, Aug +0.2 to 54.4.
JPN2135 ETJapan Sep Markit services PMI, Aug 49.9.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/02/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
McCormick & Co Inc/MDMKC US6:30Q3 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ3 20140.813
Global Payments IncGPN US6:30Q1 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ1 20151.144
Constellation Brands IncSTZ US7:30Q2 2015 Earnings ReleaseQ2 20151.155
McCormick & Co Inc/MDMKC US8:00Q3 2014 Earnings CallQ3 2014
Global Payments IncGPN US8:30Q1 2015 Earnings CallQ1 2015
TransDigm Group IncTDG US9:00Extraordinary Shareholders MeetingY 2014
Constellation Brands IncSTZ US10:30Q2 2015 Earnings CallQ2 2015
Oracle CorpORCL US14:30Analyst MeetingY 2014
AutoNation IncAN USSeptember 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

S&P 500 Index - Barchart's Chart of the Day

The S&P 500 Index is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The Index has a 60% short term technical sell signal, a Trend Spotter maximum strength sell signal, and is 3.65% off its recent high. Very strong caution signs.

The Chart of the Day belongs to the S&P 500 Index ($SPX).  The technical indicators are giving very strong caution signs that the Market has lost its momentum.  You need to heed these caution signals.


Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 60% Barchart short term sell signal
  • Trend Spotter sell signal with maximum strength
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 daily moving averages
  • All 3 DMA have sell signals and strongest direction ratings
  • 3.65% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 36.64%
  • Trading at 1948 which is below its technical support level of 1959
  • Trading below its 50 day moving average of 1975.97
I'm not Chicken Little yelling " The sky is falling! "  but at the same time all these indicators show more downside risk is possible.  Personally, I'm pruning my portfolio and accumulating cash.

I'm sitting on the sidelines

I'm not a prophet of doom but I'm accumulating cash.  I'm selling any stock that is trading below its 100 day moving average and I'm not replacing anything in my personal portfolios.  I have an optimism/pessimism index and right now that index is at a negative.  I truly believe that in the short run - at least until after the mid-term elections; there is more downside risk to being in the market than there is upside risk to be sitting on the sidelines with your powder dry.  Let me document why I think that way.

Let's look at the Market as a whole:

As I write this post just how many stock are trading below their moving averages?

  • 83.40% are below their 20 day moving average
  • 74.47% are below their 50 day moving average
  • 69.32% are below their 100 day moving averages

I use the Value Line Arithmetic Index as my Market proxy because it contains 1700 stock, well over 95% of the entire capitalization of the US stock market and it equally weights all stocks - the big boys do not overly influence this Index:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 56% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 5.89% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 32.60%
I like to stratify the Market by separating the Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap and Micro Caps.  The easiest was to do that is to analyze 4  market cap ETF's:


S&P 500 Large Cap Index ETF (IVV)


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 24% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 3.20% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 39.08


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 48% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 5.91% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 30.15%


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 8.93% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 30.73%


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14.27% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 31.60%
I am not in a full blown Market Panic -- For me that happens when the whole Market is off 10%. You can see that the Micro Caps are already there and the Small Caps are almost there.  The Large and Mid Caps aren't there yet but isn't it obvious which way they are trending???

My Plan:  

1 - Trim off from my holdings any positions that are not trading above their 100 day moving averages and leave those proceeds in cash until either the Market recovers and I begin to accumulate new positions again or;

2- The Market as reflected in the Value Line Index is off 10% at which time I will consider buying some Inverse ETF's like some of the ProShares Short Market Cap ETFs.










BARCHART MORNING CALL 10/1

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.14%) this morning are down -0.10% and European stocks are down -0.09% after a gauge of Eurozone manufacturing activity last month was revised lower to its slowest pace of expansion in 15 months. Losses were contained after data showed Chinese manufacturing activity was stronger-than-expected last month. Greek stocks rallied sharply after the Financial Times reported that ECB President Draghi at Thursday's ECB policy meeting will unveil a plan to buy private-sector assets and will push for the central bank to buy bundles of Greek and Cypriot bank loans with "junk" ratings. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.56%, Hong Kong and China closed for holiday, Taiwan +0.26%, Australia +0.78%, Singapore -0.39%, South Korea -1.54%, India -0.23%. Commodity prices are mixed. Nov crude oil (CLX14 +0.67%) is up +0.36%. Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.58%) is up +0.31%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -0.15%) is down -0.21%. Dec copper (HGZ14 +1.20%) is up +0.57%. Agriculture and livestock prices are lower with Dec corn down -0.47% at a fresh 5-year low. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.23%) is up +0.18%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.27%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.17% at a new 6-year high. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.18%) are up +8.5 ticks at a 3-week high on carry-over support from a rally in German bunds to a 3-week high.
The German Sep Markit/BME manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 49.9 from the previously reported 50.3, the first time that manufacturing activity in Germany has contracted in 15 months.
The Eurozone Sep Markit manufacturing PMI was revised down to 50.3 from the previously reported 50.5, the slowest pace of expansion in 15 months.
The China Sep manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.1, better than expectations of -0.1 to 51.0.
The UK Sep Markit manufacturing PMI fell -0.6 to 51.6, weaker than expectations of +0.2 to 52.7 and the slowest pace of expansion in 17 months.
The Japan Q3 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions unexpectedly improved to 13 from 12 in Q2, better than expectations of decline to 10.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Sep ISM manufacturing index is expected to show a -0.5 point decline to 58.5. Today’s Sep ADP employment report is expected to show an increase of +207,000, slightly better than August’s report of +204,000. Today’s Sep total vehicle sales report is expected to fall back to 16.80 million units from the 8-1/2 year high of 17.45 million posted in August.
There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Acuity Brands (consensus $1.22). Equity conferences this week include: Oracle OpenWorld 2014 on Mon-Wed, Unconventional Resources Conference Canada 2014 on Wed, and Paris Motor Show 2014-Press Days on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
Dean Foods (DF +0.61%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at BB&T.
Panera Bread (PNRA +2.51%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Wunderlich.
Tyson Foods (TSN +1.34%) was upgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform' at Credit Suisse.
Janus Capital (JNS -1.09%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Jefferies.
eBay (EBAY +7.54%) was downgraded to 'Hold' from 'Buy' at Jefferies.
Allergan (AGN -0.84%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
Freeport McMoRan (FCX +0.77%) was initiated with a 'Buy' at Brean Capital with a price target of $39.
Lockheed Martin (LMT +0.78%) was awarded a $246.61 million modification to a previously awarded government contract to develop, test, and certify two Drag Chute Systems for the Low Rate Initial Production Lot VII F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter aircraft.
Tekmira (TKMR +2.22%) surged 20%, Hemispherx BioPharma (HEB unch) climbed 15%, NewLink Genetics (NLNK -7.11%) jumped 14%, and BioCryst (BCRX -6.77%) rose over 10% in after-hours trading after the CDC confirmed that an individual traveling from Liberia has been diagnosed with the Ebola virus in the U.S.
NRG Energy (NRG +0.23%) was upgraded to 'Strong Buy' from 'Buy' at ISI Group.
Dynegy (DYN -1.54%) and Exelon (EXC -0.06%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at ISI Group.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.14%) this morning are down -2.00 points (-0.10%). The S&P 500 index on Tuesday closed lower: S&P 500 -0.28%, Dow Jones -0.17%, Nasdaq +0.06%. Bearish factors included (1) the -7.6 point drop in Sep U.S. Sep consumer confidence (Conference Board) to 86.0, much weaker than expectations of -0.2 to 92.2 and the lowest in 4 months, (2) the -0.50% m/m drop in the Jul S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index, weaker than expectations of -0.10%, and (3) the -3.8 point drop in the Sep Chicago PMI to 60.5, weaker than expectations of -2.3 to 62.0.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 +0.18%) this morning are up +8.5 ticks at a 3-week high. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Tuesday closed lower. Bearish factors included (1) hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher who said that as the economy continues to accelerate the Fed may need to raise rates in Q1-2015, and (2) speculation that Wednesday’s Sep ADP employment change will show strength in the U.S. labor market. Closes: TYZ4 -4.00, FVZ4 -1.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.23%) this morning is up +0.157 (+0.18%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0034 (-0.27%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19 (+0.17%) at a new 6-year high. The dollar index on Tuesday rallied to a 4-1/4 year high and closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the slide in EUR/USD to a 2-year low on expectations for additional ECB stimulus after the Eurozone Sep CPI eased to a 4-3/4 year low of +0.3% y/y, and (2) the rally in USD/JPY to a 6-year high as the yen plunged on the divergent Fed/BOJ monetary policies. Closes: Dollar index +0.345 (+0.40%), EUR/USD -0.00549 (-0.43%), USD/JPY +0.149 (+0.14%).
Nov WTI crude oil (CLX14 +0.67%) this morning is up +33 cents (+0.36%) and Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.58%) is up +0.0076 (+0.31%). Nov crude and Nov gasoline prices on Tuesday closed sharply lower: CLX4 -3.41 (-3.61%), RBXX4 -0.0769 (-3.06%). Nov crude retreated from a 3-1/2 week high on bearish factors that included (1) the rally in the dollar index to a new 4-1/4 year high, and (2) expectations that Wednesday’s weekly EIA inventory report will show that crude inventories rose by +1.5 mln bbl.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR10/01/2014
US0700 ETWeekly MBA mortgage applications, previous -4.1% with purchase sub-index -0.3% and refi sub-index -7.0%.
0815 ETSep ADP employment change expected +207,000, Aug +204,000.
0945 ETRevised Sep Markit manufacturing PMI expected unch at 57.9, prelim-Sep unch at 57.9.
1000 ETSep ISM manufacturing PMI expected -0.5 to 58.5, Aug +1.9 to 59.0. Sep ISM employment, Aug -0.1 to 58.1. Sep ISM new orders, Aug +3.3 to 66.7. Sep ISM prices paid expected -1.0 to 57.0, Aug -1.5 to 58.0.
1000 ETAug construction spending expected +0.5% m/m, Jul +1.8% m/m.
1030 ETEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
n/aSep total vehicle sales expected 16.80 million, Aug 17.45 million. Sep domestic vehicle sales expected 13.55 million, Aug 13.87 million.
JPN0100 ETJapan Sep vehicle sales, Aug -5.0% y/y.
GER0355 ETRevised German Sep Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, previous 50.3.
EUR0400 ETRevised Eurozone Sep Markit manufacturing PMI, previous 50.5.
UK0430 ETUK Sep Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.2 to 52.7, Aug 52.5.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR10/01/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Acuity Brands IncAYI USBef-mktQ4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20141.219
Patterson Cos IncPDCO US7:30Analyst and Investor DayY 2014
BOK Financial CorpBOKF US8:00Investor MeetingY 2014
American Capital Agency CorpAGNC US9:15Investor DayY 2014
Ford Motor CoF US9:30September 2014 Sales and Revenue Release2014
Ford Motor CoF US10:00September 2014 Sales and Revenue Call2014
Acuity Brands IncAYI US10:00Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
General Motors CoGM US10:30Business Update Call - Call 1
Autodesk IncADSK US11:30Investor DayY 2014
General Motors CoGM US13:25Business Update Call - Call 2

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Intuit - Barchart's Chart of the Day

Intuit (INTU) is the Barchart Chart of the Day.  The software stock has a Trend Spotter buy signal, a Weighted Alpha of 32.20+ and gained 32.79% in the last year.

The Chart of the Day belongs to Intuit (INTU).  I found the stock by sorting the All Time High List for the highest technical buy signals then used the Flipchart feature to find a chart I liked.  Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 9/10 the stock gained 4.13%.

Intuit's mission is to revolutionize how people manage their financial activities. The company's objective is to greatly expand the world of electronic finance. Electronic finance encompasses three types of products and services: desktop software products that operate on customers' personal computers to automate financial tasks; products and services that are delivered via the Internet; and products and services that connect Internet-based services with desktop software to enable customers to integrate their financial activities.



Barchart's Opinion trading systems are listed below. Please note that the Barchart Opinion indicators are updated live during the session every 10 minutes and can therefore change during the day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the Barchart.com web site when you read this report.

Barchart technical indicators:

  • 100% Barchart technical buy signals
  • Trend Spotter buy signals
  • Above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 10 new highs and up 5.85% in the last month
  • Relative Strength Index 64.40%
  • Barchart computes a technical support level at 84.02
  • Recently traded at 88.03 with a 50 day moving average of 83.61
Fundamental factors:
  • Market Cap $24.99 billion
  • P/E 28.78
  • Dividend yield .88%
  • Revenue expected to shrink 3.70% this year but grow again by 15.00% next year
  • Earnings are estimated to decrease by 28.90% this year but increase again by 49.60% next year and continue to increase at an annual rate of 14.35% for the next 5 years
  • Wall Street analysts issued 6 strong buy, 2 buy, 8 hold and 1 under perform recommendation on the stock.
This is a stock to watch.  Use a disciplined approach and the 50 and 100 day moving averages as your guide.

Amicus Therapeutics - Sell Signals

Today I deleted Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) from the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative portfolio for negative price momentum:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 40% Barchart short term technical sell signal
  • Trend Spotter hold but weakening
  • Below its 20 day moving average
  • 21.10% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 45.00%




Planar Systems - Sell Signals

Today I deleted Planar Systems (PLNR) for the Barchart Van Meerten Speculative Portfolio for negative price momentum:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 20% Barchart short term technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 27.92% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 40.14%


Royal Dutch Shell - Sell Signals

Today I deleted Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) fro the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for negative price momentum:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 96% Barchart technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 10.11% off its recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 32.76%


Kodiak Oil - Sell Signals

Today I deleted Kodiak Oil (KOG) from the Barchart Van Meerten New High portfolio for negative price momentum:


Barchart technical indicators:
  • 60% short term technical sell signals
  • Trend Spotter sell signal
  • Below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • 14.30% off it's recent high
  • Relative Strength Index 41.69%


BARCHART MORNING CALL 9/30

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.34%) this morning are up +0.30% and European stocks are up +0.94% as slower-than-expected Eurozone inflation bolstered speculation the ECB will boost stimulus. Other positives for European stocks included the upward revision to UK Q2 GDP and the surge in German Aug retail sales by the most in 3 years. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan -0.84%, Hong Kong -1.28%, China +0.13%, Taiwan +0.07%, Australia +0.54%, Singapore -0.39%, South Korea -0.46%, India +0.13%. Japanese stocks fell after Japan Aug industrial output unexpectedly declined, while Chinese shares gained after the PBOC loosened property policies for the first time since 2008 in an attempt to boost the housing market. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Stock Index tumbled to a 3-month low as pro-democracy protesters continued to block roads in central Hong Kong in the fifth day of protests. Commodity prices are mixed. Nov crude oil (CLX14 -0.12%) is down -0.04%. Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.05%) is up +0.12%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -1.07%) is down -0.86%. Dec copper (HGZ14 -1.19%) is down -0.67%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mixed. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.69%) is up +0.61% at a 4-1/4 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.88% at a 2-year low as weak Eurozone inflation data fuels speculation the ECB may expand stimulus to avert deflation. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.22%. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 -0.14%) are down -8 ticks.
The Eurozone Sep CPI estimate rose +0.3% y/y, right on expectations and the slowest pace of increase in 4-3/4 years. Sep core CPI rose +0.7% y/y, less than expectations of +0.9% y/y and matched the slowest pace of increase since the data series began in 1997.
The Eurozone Aug unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.5%, right on expectations and the lowest in 2 years.
The German Sep unemployment change unexpectedly rose +12,000, more than expectations of -2,000. The Sep unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, right on expectations and the lowest since data for a reunified Germany began in 1991.
German Aug retail sales rose +2.5% m/m, five times stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and the biggest increase in 3 years. On an annual basis, Aug retail sales rise +0.1% y/y, less than expectations of +0.3% y/y.
The China Sep HSBC manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 50.2 from the originally reported 50.5.
Japan Aug industrial production fell -1.5% m/m and -2.9% y/y, much weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and -1.1% y/y with the -2.9% y/y fall the largest year-over-year decline in 14 months.
Japan Aug retail sales rose +1.9% m/m and +1.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +0.1% y/y.
The Japan Aug jobless rate unexpectedly fell -0.3 to 3.5%, better than expectations of no change at 3.8% and matched the May low as the lowest in 17 years. The Aug job-to-applicant ratio was unch at 1.10, right on expectations and matched the highest in 25 years.
UK Sep GfK consumer confidence fell -2 to -1, a bigger decline than expectations of -1 to 0.
UK Sep nationwide house prices fell -0.2% m/m and rose +9.4% y/y, less than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +10.4% y/y.
UK Q2 GDP was revised higher to +0.9% q/q from the previously reported +0.8% q/q, but remained unchanged at +3.2% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Today’s Sep U.S. consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to show a small increase of +0.1 to 92.5, which would be a new 6-3/4 year high. Today’s July CaseShiller Composite-20 home price index is expected to show a -0.1 m/m decline, adding to the -0.3% decline in May and the -0.2% decline seen in June. Today’s Sep Chicago PMI index is expected to show a -2.3 point decline to 62.0, giving back a small part of the +11.7 point surge to 64.3 seen in August. There is one of the Russell 1000 companies that reports earnings today: Walgreen ($0.74).
Equity conferences this week include: Oracle OpenWorld 2014 on Mon-Wed, Johnson Rice Energy Conference on Mon-Tue, Bloomberg Canadian Fixed Income Conference on Tue, SACHS ASSOCIATES - Biotech in Europe Forum For Global Partnering & Investment on Tue, Deutsche Bank Leveraged Finance Conference on Tue, Leerink Partners Rare Disease Roundtable on Tue, JMP Securities Financial Services & Real Estate Conference on Tue, TAG Fall Consumer Conference on Tue, Unconventional Resources Conference Canada 2014 on Wed, and Paris Motor Show 2014-Press Days on Thu.
OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS
eBay (EBAY -0.51%) jumped over 10% in pre-market trading after it said it will separate eBay and PayPal into independent publicly traded companies in 2015.
Toyota (TM -0.95%) was upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.
Alcoa (AA -1.61%) and Century Aluminum (CENX -2.89%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at BofA/Merrill.
Kellogg (K +0.10%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Morgan Stanley.
Teekay (TK +0.72%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank with a price target of $90.
Walgreen (WAG -0.96%) reported Q4 EPS of 74 cents, right on consensus.
Priceline reported a 5.84% stake in Ctrip.com (CTRP -3.48%) .
Greenlight capital reported a 37.5% stake in Einstein Noah (BAGL +50.49%) .
Lone Pine Capital reported a 5.3% passive stake in Tiffany (TIF -0.79%) .
Cintas (CTAS -0.48%) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 78 cents, higher than consensus 75 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS view to $3.20-$3.29 from $3.06-$3.15, higher than consensus of $3.09.
Raytheon (RTN -0.62%) and Lockheed Martin (LMT -0.12%) were both upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Stifel.
SYNNEX (SNX +1.20%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.59, better than consensus of $1.48.
Ford (F -7.47%) says it won't achieve 2014 profit goals, sees pre-tax profit of $6 billion, below ealier projection of $7 billion to $8 billion.
MARKET COMMENTS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 +0.34%) this morning are up +6.00 points (+0.30%). The S&P 500 index on Monday fell to a 6-week low and closed lower: S&P 500 -0.25%, Dow Jones -0.25%, Nasdaq -0.16%. Bearish factors included (1) increased geopolitical concerns due to civil unrest in Hong Kong after pro-democracy protesters clashed with police, and (2) the -1.0% m/m and -4.1% y/y decline in U.S. Aug pending home sales, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and -1.4% y/y. Stocks rebounded upward from their worst levels after U.S. Aug personal spending rose +0.5%, better than expectations of +0.4%.
Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ14 -0.14%) this morning are down -8 ticks. Dec 10-year T-note futures prices on Monday closed higher. Bullish factors included (1) the larger-than-expected decline in Aug pending home sales, and (2) comments from Chicago Fed President Evans suggesting that he wants to maintain the Fed’s extraordinary monetary policy when he said the labor market recovery is “far from complete” and it’s still premature “to return to business as usual” with traditional monetary policy. Closes: TYZ4 +10.50, FVZ4 +4.50.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.69%) this morning is up +0.518 (+0.61%) at a new 4-1/4 year high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0111 (-0.88%) at a 2-year low and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.24 (+0.22%). The dollar index on Monday retreated from a fresh 4-year high and closed lower. EUR/USD recovered from a 1-3/4 year low and closed higher after German Sep CPI rose +0.8% y/y, higher than expectations of +0.7% y/y, which reduces pressure on the ECB to expand stimulus. Dollar losses were limited after USD/JPY rose to a 6-year high on the divergent monetary policies between the Fed and BOJ. Closes: Dollar index -0.049 (-0.06%), EUR/USD +0.0003 (+0.03%), USD/JPY +0.245 (+0.22%).
Nov WTI crude oil (CLX14 -0.12%) this morning is down -4 cents (-0.04%) and Nov gasoline (RBX14 +0.05%) is up +0.0030 (+0.12%). Nov crude and gasoline prices on Monday closed higher with Nov crude at a 3-week high: CLX4 +1.03 (+1.10%), RBXX4 +0.0261 (+1.05%). Bullish factors included (1) the weaker dollar, and (2) gasoline supply concerns as Irving Oil’s 146,000 bpd St. John, New Brunswick, refinery remains closed for unplanned repairs and as Bloomberg data shows refineries in Texas remain off line for maintenance or unplanned repairs at the highest rate in 3 years.
GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR09/30/2014
US0900 ETSep Milwaukee ISM expected +1.37 to 61.00, Aug -4.24 to 59.63.
0900 ETJul S&P/CaseShiller composite-20 home price index expected -0.10 m/m and +7.35% y/y, Jun -0.20% m/m and +8.07% y/y.
0945 ETSep Chicago PMI expected -2.3 to 62.0, Aug +11.7 to 64.3.
1000 ETSep consumer confidence (Conference Board) expected +0.1 to 92.5, Aug +2.1 to 92.4.
1045 ETFed Governor Jerome Powell speaks on a panel discussion of Government Debt Management at the Zero Lower Bound at the Brookings Institute.
1200 ETUSDA Q3 Quarterly Grain Stocks.
JPN0000 ETJapan Aug vehicle production, Jul -1.7% y/y.
0100 ETJapan Aug housing starts expected -14.2% y/y to 837,000, Jul -14.1% y/y to 839,000.
1950 ETJapan Q3 Tankan large manufacturing business conditions expected 10, Q2 was 12.
2135 ETRevised Japan Sep Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI.
UK0200 ETUK Sep nationwide house prices expected +0.5% m/m and +10.4% y/y, Aug +0.8% m/m and +11.0% y/y.
0430 ETRevised UK Q2 GDP, previous +0.8% q/q and +3.2% y/y.
0430 ETUK Jul index of services expected +0.3% m/m and +1.0% 3-mo/3-mo, Jun +0.3% m/m and +1.0% 3-mo/3-mo.
0430 ETUK Sep Lloyds business barometer, Aug 47.
GER0200 ETGerman Aug retail sales expected +0.5% m/m and +0.3% y/y, Jul -1.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y.
0355 ETGerman Sep unemployment change expected -2,000, Aug +2,000. Sep unemployment rate expected unch at 6.7%.
EUR0500 ETEurozone Sep CPI estimate expected +0.3% y/y, Aug +0.3% y/y. Sep core CPI expected +0.9% y/y, Aug +0.9% y/y.
0500 ETEurozone Aug unemployment rate expected unch at 11.5%.
CHI2100 ETChina Sep manufacturing PMI expected -0.1 to 51.0, Aug -0.6 to 51.1.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR09/30/2014
Company NameTickerTimeEvent DescriptionPeriodEstimate
Walgreen CoWAG US7:30Q4 2014 Earnings ReleaseQ4 20140.74
Moody's CorpMCO US8:00Investor DayY 2014
Walgreen CoWAG US8:30Q4 2014 Earnings CallQ4 2014
Intuit IncINTU US11:30Investor DayY 2014
Microsoft CorpMSFT US13:00Microsoft Analyst Update